Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Keys To Beating Bucky: My Take on the Rose Bowl



   The Ducks are all business this year as they prepare for the Rose Bowl, against B1G conference champions Wisconsin.  The 98th edition of the grandaddy of 'em all features a match-up between two elite teams with contrasting styles, and a lot to play for.  And maybe more so for Oregon.

   The Ducks come into the game playing in their third straight BCS bowl, having lost the previous two.  In order to take the next step and be taken seriously, the Ducks need to win this game, otherwise they're on the verge of becoming known as a cute little program, that can't win the big game.

   It would also be a chance to salvage a season that just a month ago, had potential for so much more.  Everybody thought the Ducks were out of the national championship picture after losing to LSU, and yet here they were on Nov. 19, against USC, back in it.  However, a missed field goal at the end put the final dagger on those chances.

   A loss in the Rose Bowl and this becomes a disappointing season.  A season of what could have been?  A win makes up for that loss, and sends them into the recruiting season with momentum.  The Ducks also wanna send LaMichael James out on a win.  James, one of the best running backs (if not the best) in Oregon history will likely be playing his last game in a Duck uniform, as he gets ready for a future in the NFL.

   The Ducks literally have a tall task in front of them if they wanna meet those goals.  Standing in their way is a BIG and powerful Wisconsin Badger team.  What do the Ducks need to do to win this game?  The answer is simple:  once again it all comes down to a battle of the trenches.

   I say that because Wisconsin has some giants on both sides of the line.  Look at some of the teams Oregon has lost to recently:  LSU this year, Auburn and Ohio State in 2010 (both in bcs games), and Boise State in '09.  What did they have in common?  Big defensive lines that were able to shut down Oregon's offense, and offensive lines that were able to contain Oregon's blitzing defense, and move the ball on them.

   I love Oregon's offense so I hate to say this, but when a team is able to shut them down - like Auburn did, like Ohio State did, like LSU did - Oregon's offense does look gimmicky and becomes rather pedestrian.

   Wisconsin probably has the second or third best defense Oregon will have faced this year (LSU being #1, USC being #2).  The Badgers have the nations number eight total team defense, and give up an average of 17 points per game.

   The Badgers' offensive line is bigger than all but TWO NFL lines.  The average size on the Badger offensive line is 6-5, 320 pounds.  The Ducks counter with a fast defensive line that is second in the nation in sacks with 43.  And it's not as if the Badgers' offensive line is stellar at pass blocking.  They are 59th in the nation in sacks allowed with 23.

   On offense the Ducks must be able to establish the run game by getting good blocks up front.  On defense, they must be able to get pressure on Wisconsin's quarterback Russell Wilson.  The run d, which gives up a mere 3.6 ypc, needs to be able to contain one of the nations best backs in Montee Ball.  Easier said than done.

   If the Ducks can do that, I feel good about their chances.  The players talk about being tired of losing these bowl games.  Even a loss though is a learning experience, and the Ducks have plenty of big bowl game experience.  Most of the players on this team were on last year's team that played in the national championship, and were also on the team that played in the 2010 Rose Bowl.  "They understand the task at hand," Chip Kelly said, on referring to his players.

   Hopefully they do, and the business like approach ends in a big pay day.


NOTES:
  • All-Time series: Wisconsin leads 3-1
  • Oregon won the last meeting in 2001, 31-28
  • Oregon is 9-15 all-time in bowl games (2-2 in last 4)
  • Oregon is 1-2 all-time in bcs bowl games
  • Oregon is 1-4 all-time in the Rose Bowl
  • Oregon has the nations No. 6 total offense (Wisc. is 15th)
  • Oregon has the nations No. 5 rush offense (Wisc. is 10th)
  • Oregon has the nations No. 3 scoring offense (Wisc. is 4th)
  • Both teams are pretty even in passing offense (Ore. is 71st/Wisc. is  62nd)

No comments:

Post a Comment