Last week I went 3-1 with my only loss being the Steelers/Broncos game, which I'm sure a lot of people missed on. Even so, I said it would be a close game, and was my game most likely to result in an upset. This week, like last week, I'm going pretty chalk: I have Baltimore over Houston, Green Bay over New York, New Orleans over San Fransisco, and New England over Denver.
Houston has had good run this year, their pinnacle was probably last week. Baltimore is veteran team, playing at home, with that defense? I'll take Ravens all day. I don't expect a high scoring game though. Again going with the home team here in the Giants/Packers game. The defense, with Charles Woodson, still is a ball hawking secondary. And as if Aaron Rodgers needed any more motivation, he's probably seen this posted in his locker room: http://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/new-york-post-eli-manning-rambo/
Tebow time comes to an end this week, but I'm getting tired of him proving me wrong. Not that I think the patriots defense is a bunch of world beaters, but I still don't think the Broncos offense is gonna put up the points/yards they need to be in the game for four quarters. And I'm not picking against Brady and Belichick.
The game I'm looking forward to the most, and the game I think is most likely to result in an upset is New Orleans at San Fransisco. I wanna pick the 49ers. You know Harbaugh will be pulling out all the stops to create a home field advantage - growing the grass, watering the grass - and the 49ers have a sick defense, I just can't do it. For as nasty as the 49ers defense is, the Saints offense is even scarier. They are first in the NFL passing yards per game, and sixth in rushing. I don't see them putting up the usual video game like numbers against the 49ers, they do other teams, but they'll still get theirs. Probably in the 24-31 range, and I don't believe that Alex Smith can match Drew Brees. Saints will get enough to win.
I am tending to favor the chalk in this week's game, with the exception of one. Houston will have a difficult time in Baltimore. They have a great defense, but I think Yates will end up making rookie mistakes and Baltimore will slip by. New England is going to blow out Denver. Tebow will play a strong half, and then they'll fall behind by 10-17, and he'll have to force a few balls deeper and things will spiral out of control for Denver after that point.
ReplyDeleteThe NFC is tougher. Conventional wisdom is that the Saints are better than the Niners, but that's a home game for SF and the Saints are 5-3 on the road (good, but beatable). I think New Orleans will slip by, but I wouldn't be stunned if the Niners won that game.
I also wouldn't be stunned if the Giants beat the Packers. But I'm not confident enough about it to say that there's anything more than a 15-20% chance they could pull it off.
Exactly what I think about the Saints/Niners game. Other numbers for that game: the saints are 0-4 all-time on the road in the playoffs, and the 49ers defense against the pass is good, but not great (16th). I would be a little more surprised if the Giants beat the Packers. I'd give them more of a chance in the meadowlands.
ReplyDeletePackers-Packers-Packers. That's been my team since I knew what football was. The only thing that can beat the Packers this week in Lambeau will be the Packers. I have them winning 38-28. But the game won't be that close; Giants will make it respectable in garbage time.
ReplyDeleteSaints over the 49ers. Once again, only way the Saints get beat is if they beat themselves. The 49ers can't score with them, and even if their defense plays great the Saints will still put up 20+. Saints 24-14.
Patriots over the Broncos. I'm sick of Tebow Time. And this one will be the most lopsided game of the weekend. Patriots 42-10. Think of a repeat from the regular season except its in Foxboro and it won't even be close through the half.
My upset of the weekend is Texans over Ravens. Foster-Foster-Foster. He will be huge, even against Baltimore's vaunted defense. And Flacco will find a way to throw the game away. Texans 24-21.
Nice hunch so far on a possible upset by the 49ers. Turnovers are killing New Orleans. A long way to go still!
ReplyDeleteDidn't see Alex Smith playing that well in prime-time... Well, ever actually. But I practically nailed the NE/DEN game!
ReplyDelete"The only thing that can beat the Packers this week in Lambeau will be the Packers."
ReplyDeleteYou said it...3 or 4 turnovers, 8 dropped passes didn't help. This Giants team (and I said it the last week of the regular season) is getting hot, and ready for another run similar to the year they beat the patriots (think it was '07).
"Giants will make it respectable in garbage time."
Looks like you missed on that one haha! Good insights though.